("Their revolution was televised, but nobody watched." Probably because only about 15% of the world has internet access, and probably less than 5% read blogs... and not everyone watches tv either)
The premature triumphalism of some bloggers indicates that they haven't paid attention to how Webified journalists have become. They also ignore media history. New media technologies almost never replace old media technologies, they merely force old technologies to adapt and find new ways to connect with their audiences. Radio killed the "special edition," but newspapers survived. When television dethroned radio as the hearthside infobox and cratered the Hollywood box office, radio became a mobile medium, and Hollywood devoted itself to spectaculars that the tiny TV set couldn't adequately display. The competitive spiral has continued, with cable TV, VCRs and DVDs, satellite TV and radio broadcasters, and now Internet broadcasters entering the fray. The only extinct mass medium that I can think of is the movie house newsreel.
The likelihood that blogs will vanquish mainstream media recalls the prediction Michael Crichton made in his 1993 essay "Mediasaurus." Crichton wrote that the New York Times and one commercial TV network would vanish within a decade and would be replaced by artificial-intelligence agents, skimming information and the news from news databases and composing front pages or broadcasts tailored to the interests and needs of individuals. Like Shamberg's guerrilla revolution, Crichton's infotopia failed to arrive as promised. In 2002, Crichton good-naturedly claimed that his vision will still come true; it's just running a little late.
Maybe Crichton predicted "Google News". But I hardly think Google News will wipe out a TV network. Especially since a hell of a lot more people in the world have television sets. Most people in the world don't have internet access. A lot of bloggers often forget this though. I think a lot of bloggers don't realize that there are people in the world who don't have telephones... or even clean water.
Only about 15% of the world has internet access, and probably less than 5% read blogs, and likely far less use Google as a verb, regardless of what The Word Spy might have you believe.
And a lot of us with relatively clean water, cell phones, internet access, and televisions, don't even watch much television and don't bother with Google News much.
Maybe a lot of bloggers think "Shafer doesn't get it." (I could've used that U.S. dollar for some candy, damn it!) But I didn't think this Shafer was referring to everyone at this conference. I knew he was really talking about the zealous bloggers with delusions of grandeur. And come on, they do exist.
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